China presses Global South leaders to support Taiwan 'reunification'
'One China' recognition no longer sufficient when meeting Beijing's top leaders
WASHINGTON -- When Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Malaysia last week, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said that his country firmly supports China in "achieving national reunification."
Support for China's "reunification" with Taiwan was not a phrase that Anwar used when he met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in March 2023, at least according to the Chinese readout. But Anwar joins a list of Global South and other leaders who have recently mentioned "reunification" in their meetings with Li or President Xi Jinping -- a trend that has not gone unnoticed by Western analysts.
"Beijing is no longer satisfied with deterring Taiwan independence. Xi Jinping is now seeking to promote reunification," said Bonnie Glaser, the managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
China has long made its diplomatic relationships contingent upon its partners' acknowledgment that there is only "one China." But its recent engagements with some other countries suggest it increasingly demands more than that.
During a state visit to China in April, Surinamese President Chandrikapersad Santokhi said that Suriname will continue to "unswervingly support China in achieving national reunification." Some, like King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain, have said they support "peaceful reunification."
But others, like Equatorial Guinea President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who both had state visits in May, said they support "complete reunification" without adding conditions on how that should take place.
For Malaysia's part, when it established diplomatic relations with China in May 1974, it said it recognizes the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, and "acknowledged" Beijing's position that Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory.
That Malaysia did not "recognize," "support" or "endorse" that position on Taiwan was in line with the "One China" policies of other nations around the world. The U.S. holds that there is but one entity called "China," but leaves ambiguity over sovereignty. U.S. presidents have repeatedly reassured Chinese leaders that Washington does not support Taiwan independence.
But Anwar's explicit support for "reunification" appears to be one step closer to Beijing's position. Communist China has never controlled Taiwan, but considers the island part of its territory and has refused to rule out taking it by force.
Some leaders, such as Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Bahrain's King Hamad, Egypt's Sisi and Equatorial Guinea's Teodoro Obiang have also expressed support for a One China "principle," a subtle but important choice of word that implies endorsement of Beijing's stance that Taiwan is a province of China.
Analysts in Washington say they started to take note of the shifting rhetoric around last fall, ahead of Xi's meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden in Woodside, California, in November.
Rush Doshi, who until recently served as the National Security Council deputy senior director for China and Taiwan, said, "This is [China's] response to the United States enlisting its allies and partners to speak publicly about the importance of peace and stability in the [Taiwan] Strait."
Most Western leaders are not playing Xi's game. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken simply told Xi in April that the U.S. adheres to the One China policy.
But in January, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told visiting Premier Li in Dublin that Ireland always abides by the One China "principle" and that he "hopes that China will achieve peaceful reunification at an early date," according to the Chinese readout. Varadkar later corrected the record, stating the One China "policy" of Ireland, a European Union member, had not changed.
Some analysts say that last month's inauguration of Taiwan's new pro-sovereignty President Lai Ching-te may fuel Xi's drive to press more leaders to publicly support "reunification."
Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, said Anwar's statement is "one of many troubling signs of the more aggressive turn in Xi's approach to Taiwan we could expect to see more in the years to come, as Beijing turns the screws on the Lai administration."
This shift in Beijing's strategy began in the latter half of former President Tsai Ing-wen's second term, Hsiao said. "Beijing is no longer simply seeking political endorsement from other countries of its 'One China principle,' but for them to take action that actively supports its position on 'reunification.'"
While it would be more challenging for China to force major powers to concede to this position, "it would be harder for smaller countries to resist Beijing's pressure," Hsiao said. "What this change means in practical terms requires careful and close observation."
But Doshi was confident that support from Global South countries would only go so far.
"China may get countries to support unification, but does that mean those countries support war? No, none of them want that. The global economic cost would be too great," he said.